Business formation is a critical component of local and national economic growth. The creation of new jobs and establishments from newly minted firms helps ensure the vitality of entrepreneurial activity in the United States. However, Pugsley and Sahin (2019) document a prominent and problematic 30-year decline in new employer business startups, something closely linked with "jobless recoveries." This is especially concerning given that nearly 20 percent of entrepreneurship stems out of necessity, as opposed to opportunity, during cyclical downturns (Fairlie and Fossen, 2019). The extent to which new firms are able to begin operating as innovative vessels during depressed economic times directly influences the pace at which the national economy can recover to pre-recession levels.

This 2021 volume of An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee is the forty-fifth in a series of annual reports compiled in response to requests by state government officials for assistance in achieving greater interdepartmental consistency in planning and budgeting efforts sensitive to the overall economic environment. Both short-term, or business cycle-sensitive forecasts, and longer-term, or trend forecasts, are provided in this report.

Many business leaders from across Tennessee responded to the inaugural Boyd Center’s Business LeadersSurvey, providing a unique perspective on Tennessee and the nation’s economy. Responses were provided between August 12-20, which isa uniquely challengingtime in the nation’s economy because of COVID-19. Respondents, over half of whomare CEOs or company owners, represent a broad sample of Tennessee’s businesses, both by size and by industry.